The Concept of Non-nuclear Development
of the Power Industry of Ukraine

Executive summary

The Concept of Non-nuclear Development of the Power Industry of Ukraine was developed by Ukrainian environmental NGOs in response to unwillingness of the Government to consider seriously alternatives to the “nuclear” scenario of the draft Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030 (the draft was approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on March 15, 2006).

Notwithstanding numerous applications of NGOs, the Government had failed to conduct broad public discussions on the draft Strategy before its approval.

The goal of this document is to demonstrate that there is an alternative to the nuclear scenario of development of the power industry complex of Ukraine. First and foremost, the alternative relies on implementation of energy-saving and energy efficient technologies, real practical application of renewables and alternative energy sources. However, the alternative also stipulates review of the scenario of sharp reduction of consumption of natural gas.

The Concept provides critical analysis of data and conclusions of the Strategy. In particular, in Section 1, it is shown that the Strategy’s forecast of fuel and energy consumption for 2030 was overestimated by 213.1 million tons of conventional fuel, suggesting low quality of the whole document. Such an overestimation makes one sceptical about all other data and conclusions of the Strategy, in particular as for the need to construct 22 new reactor units, sharp reduction of consumption of natural gas and ignoring substantial capacity of renewables. In Section 2, authors prove that the Strategy declaration of the need to extend operational service life of existing NPPs and to construct 22 new reactor units is not duly substantiated by comprehensive estimates of technological, environmental, social and economic risks of the nuclear scenario — as a result, associated costs are substantially underestimated.

Examples of developed European countries in Section 3 suggest that even in conditions of stable GDP growth with associated patterns of demand in heat and electric energy, there are real alternatives to the nuclear path of power industry development. In particular, the EU plans to increase the share of renewables in the energy consumption of EU countries to 20% by 2020 (the German Government proposes to set the target even higher — 30% for the EU and 40% for Germany).

Key energy conservation options and associated costs (see Table 4.1. Potential options for introduction of energy-saving technologies and necessary investments at page 23) are proposed in Section 4. In Section 5, assessments of potential capacity of renewable energy sources and forecasts of their application in Ukraine up to 2050 are provided. The Section provides a detailed account of potential capacity of bio-energy, wind power, solar collectors, photovoltaics, geothermal energy and hydropower. Section 6 is dedicated to cogeneration of heat and electricity as an option that allows to reduce fuel consumption at the same energy output. Section 7 is dedicated to analysis of reduction of heat and electric energy losses in the sphere of housing and utilities at stages of power generation, transportation and consumption. In Section 8, potential utilisation of coalbed methane for electricity generation in Ukraine is considered. Sections 9, 10, 11 and 12 are dedicated to reconstruction of gas transportation networks, utilisation of discharge energy of boilers, utilisation of natural gas pressure and application of industrial gases, respectively.

In terms of coal and oil consumption, Section 13 — Development of Traditional Energy Sources — relies on data of the Strategy, but it proposes another scenario of use of natural gas as the most environmentally sound traditional fuel: instead of substantial reduction, the scenario stipulates some increase (10%). Appropriateness of the gas scenario is based on much lower estimated costs comparatively to costs of development and operation of new nuclear reactor units and management of irradiated nuclear fuel, as well as on obviously lower associated risks.

Possible non-nuclear scenario of development of the power industry of Ukraine up to 2030 is presented in Section 14. The scenario stipulates: the share of nuclear power at the level of 2.1 million tons of conventional fuel annually to be produced by 2 reactor units that will not exceed their normal operating time by 2030 (RNPP-4 and KhNPP-2); consumption of natural gas close to consumption of coal (gas will meet 33.3% and coal will meet 35.4% of the overall demand in fuel and energy resources); followed by renewables and alternative energy sources — 16.3%. Biomass energy and wind power will make the main contribution to the share of renewable energy sources. Overall, renewables will allow to meet 11.7% (33.54 million tons of conventional fuel/year) of the energy demand, in line with trends in developed countries in Europe and elsewhere (see Fig. 14.2. The structure of consumption of primary energy sources in Ukraine in 2030, according to the non-nuclear scenario of development of the power industry (at the overall consumption of 285.7 million tons of conventional fuel) at page 43).

Analysis of available capacity and potential options of application of energy-saving technologies, alternative and renewable energy sources allows to conclude that the alternative to the nuclear option of development of the power industry of Ukraine really exists, making the Strategy’s declared necessity of construction of 22 new reactor units and establishment of the closed nuclear fuel cycle in Ukraine unjustified.

Recommendations for the Government of Ukraine propose to admit that approval of the draft Energy Strategy was a misjudgement and to develop a new draft. These activities should start from a dedicated study of actual energy losses in different economic sectors in order to assess the overall energy conservation capacity. The forecast of consumption of primary energy sources in Ukraine in 2030 should be reassessed downward, accounting for assessments of GDP growth and reduction of the GDP’s energy intensity. Predicted shares of renewables in the overall consumption of fuel and energy resources in 2030 should be reassessed, accounting for higher use of bio-energy and wind power. Ukraine should reject the option of commissioning of any new reactor units, all operational reactor units should be decommissioned as planned instead of the expansion of nuclear power capacity. It is necessary to make transparent cost estimates for processing and storage of nuclear waste, irradiated nuclear fuel and other costs of the nuclear power complex, unforeseen by the Energy Strategy. Funds, allocated for construction of new reactor units should be invested into development of energy efficient technologies, alternative and renewable energy sources. In the framework of development of the new draft Energy Strategy, it is necessary to develop alternative scenarios of development of the power industry of Ukraine, accounting for provisions of the Concept of the Non-nuclear Development of the Power Industry of Ukraine. The Government should conduct broad public discussions on the draft Strategy and alternative scenarios, with involvement of all stakeholders and in convenient terms, allowing their comprehensive review.

Development of the Concept was initiated, co-ordinated and funded by All-Ukraine Environmental NGO “MAMA-86”. The range of authors of the Concept of Non-nuclear Development of the Power Industry of Ukraine incorporated “MAMA-86”, the National Environmental Centre of Ukraine, EcoClub NGO (Rivne), The Voice of Nature NGO (Dniprodzerzhinsk), “Bakhmat” Environmental Culture Centre (Artemivsk), experts and advisors of the Agency for Renewable Energy NGO and “Biomassa” NTC, with participation of V.I. Usatenko, the expert of the National Radiation Protection Committee under the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

The full text of the Concept is available at: mama-86.org.ua/files/nnconcept_eng.pdf.